Seven Ethiopian armed and opposition groups have formally announced a new alliance aimed at coordinating their activities against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s federal government, in a development that adds another layer to Ethiopia’s already complex security crisis.
The coalition, known as the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, brings together groups that have previously operated separately and, in some cases, have fought on opposing sides of Ethiopia’s conflicts.
Among the most prominent members are the Amhara Fano National Movement, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA). Four other organisations — the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front, Benishangul Peoples’ Liberation Movement and Gumuz Peoples’ Democratic Movement — are also part of the alliance.
The groups say their decision to work together followed more than a year of discussions. They have presented the new organisation as a coordinated response to what they describe as serious political and security challenges under the current federal administration.
According to the coalition’s statement, one of its principal objectives is to bring about a transition in Ethiopia’s government and establish an interim administration.
The proposed transitional arrangement would, according to the groups, focus on ending armed conflicts, protecting citizens’ rights, addressing political disputes and creating conditions for a broader national dialogue.
The alliance also says it wants an inclusive political process capable of addressing longstanding constitutional and national questions. Its members argue that such a process should involve wider public participation rather than being limited to existing political institutions.
The announcement comes at a particularly sensitive moment for Ethiopia.
The country has experienced persistent armed conflict in several regions in recent years. Fighting between federal forces and the TPLF devastated the northern Tigray region from 2020 until the Pretoria peace agreement of 2022 brought the major hostilities to an end.
That agreement, however, did not resolve every dispute. Questions surrounding disarmament, political authority and contested territories have remained sources of tension.
The situation in Tigray has become increasingly concerning again in recent months, with renewed military movements and political disagreements raising fears that the region could slide back into a major confrontation. The TPLF declared in July that it considered the Pretoria agreement effectively dead.
Elsewhere, the federal government has continued its confrontation with the OLA in Oromia. The conflict there has persisted since 2018, while fighting between federal forces and Fano groups in Amhara intensified from 2023 following government efforts to disarm regional armed groups.
The new alliance is therefore notable because some of its members have previously been rivals.
Fano forces fought alongside Ethiopia’s federal forces during the Tigray war against the TPLF. There are also longstanding disagreements between Amhara and Tigrayan actors over Western Tigray, a territory claimed by both sides.
Despite those differences, representatives of the newly formed alliance say their members are prepared to set aside their disputes for now and work together against what they regard as a common threat.
TPLF Vice President Amanuel Assefa said the groups had been negotiating for more than a year before reaching an agreement. Fano leader Zemene Kassie is expected to chair the new alliance.
Analysts, however, have questioned how durable and effective the coalition will be.
Regional specialist Kjetil Tronvoll told AFP that coordinating several armed fronts could create additional challenges for the federal government, but he also questioned whether the groups could sustain a prolonged confrontation. He further pointed to the ideological and political differences among the alliance’s members as a potential challenge to any future governing arrangement.
The Ethiopian government had not publicly responded to the announcement at the time of the latest reports.
For Ethiopia, the formation of the alliance could have significant implications if its members succeed in coordinating their political and military activities. At the same time, their history of disagreements means the extent of their cooperation remains uncertain.
The announcement comes as calls for political dialogue compete with continuing armed confrontations across several parts of the country.
Whether the new coalition can maintain unity among its diverse members, establish a functioning joint structure and translate its declaration into sustained political or military coordination remains to be seen.
